Daily Market Outlook, November 20, 2025 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Stocks soared as Nvidia unveiled a robust revenue forecast, easing fears of an AI sector bubble that had previously rattled global markets. Nvidia's shares jumped 5% in after-hours trading following its earnings release, sparking a rally among other AI-related stocks. The upbeat sentiment boosted S&P 500 futures by 1.3% and Nasdaq 100 contracts by 1.9%, offering a welcome reprieve after a turbulent week. European markets were also poised for gains. Alphabet saw a rise in its stock price, fuelled by glowing reviews of its newly launched Gemini AI model. Asian markets experienced a relief rally, boosting stocks in early Thursday trading as investors celebrated Nvidia's outstanding earnings. Tech-focused markets in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan led the upward movement after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the overwhelming demand for its AI chips from major cloud providers while dismissing worries about an AI bubble. His comments were supported by the company's forecast of quarterly revenue significantly exceeding Wall Street's expectations, alleviating some concerns about AI valuations that had sparked a market downturn in previous sessions. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo surged by over 4%, while South Korean stocks rose by more than 3%, and the Taiwanese market increased by 3.4% due to substantial gains from tech manufacturers in the AI supply chain. TSMC gained 4.3%, Samsung Electronics advanced by 5.1%, SK Hynix saw a jump of 4.5%, and Tokyo Electron soared by 5.4%. Additionally, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 1.2%, recovering from a one-month low.

Bitcoin joined the rally, briefly climbing past the 93k handle before retreating again. The crypto crash of 2025 had deepened on Wednesday as Bitcoin plummeted to its lowest level in seven months, fuelling a continued $1 trillion wipeout across the digital asset market. The cryptocurrency benchmark dropped to a low of 88.5K, with the latest sell-off impacting investors across the board, from retail dip-buyers to digital asset treasury firms, whose stock premiums are rapidly eroding. 

In currency news, the Dollar held steady after recording its largest jump since late September. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries stabilised following a dip in the previous session, as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts diminished amid a grim labour market outlook. On the other side of the globe, Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama underscored the importance of monitoring market trends alongside BoJ Governor Ueda and Growth Strategy Minister Kiuchi. The trio reaffirmed their commitment to a joint strategy focused on eradicating deflation and fostering sustainable economic growth.

In the U.S., the September jobs report is expected to provide investors with insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction, despite the complications posed by the six-week government shutdown. The Fed will be missing much of the usual data ahead of its next policy meeting scheduled for December 10, with the upcoming jobs report now delayed to December 16. Traders are interpreting the scarcity of economic data as a potential reason for the Fed to pause, with Fed funds futures indicating a 33% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, a decrease from the 50% chance noted a day prior, based on the CME Group's FedWatch tool.  Nonetheless, having one more data point will provide some clarity, making it somewhat easier for investors to gauge the direction of Fed policy as we approach Christmas and the New Year.

Overnight Headlines

  • Fed Officials ‘Strongly’ Divided On December Rate Cut

  • Hawkish Fed Minutes Indicate Rising Worries Over Inflation On FOMC

  • US September Jobs Report Due Today After Shutdown Delay

  • Nvidia Profits Soar, Sees $65B Revenue Next Quarter

  • Lenovo Beats Forecasts On AI Demand Strength

  • Crypto World Wipes Out $1T As Bitcoin Plunges Anew

  • Meta AI’s LeCun Set To Depart, Launch New Startup

  • US Quietly Approved Peace Plan Between Russia, Ukraine

  • White House Moves To Block Bill Limiting AI Chip Exports

  • US Approves Deal To Sell AI Chips To Middle East

  • BoJ’s Koeda Backs Policy Normalisation As Yen Slides

  • RBA Flags Labour Market Too Tight For Inflation Target

  • UK Consumer Confidence Slumps Ahead Of Budget

  • Germany Will Miss 2029 3.5% Defence Spending Target

  • UK And EU Hit Impasse In Defence Deal Talks

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1470-75 (1.3BLN), 1.1500 (3BLN), 1.1530-40 (634M), 1.1550 (1BLN)

  • 1.1575 (400M), 1.1600 (2.1BLN)

  • USD/CHF: 0.8050 (280M). EUR/CHF: 0.9300 (227M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8750 (843M), 0.800 (309M), 0.8825-30 (200M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3000 (295M), 1.3100 (265M), 1.3250 (1BLN)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6475 (330M), 0.6500-10 (1.2BLN), 0.6520-30 (743M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5675 (300M). USD/CAD: 1.4055 (278M)

  • USD/JPY: 155.00 (1.6BLN), 156.00 (328M), 156.85-90 (766M)

CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25 

  • October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 6773 Target 6857

  • Below 6679 Target 6606

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.1579 Target 1.1626

  • Below 1.1531 Target 1.1492

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.3126 Target 1.3166

  • Below 1.3095 Target 1.2947

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 155.79 Target 159.50

  • Below 155.40 Target 154.17

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 4109 Target 4220

  • Below 4057 Target 3975

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 93.4k Target 98.8k

  • Below 92.5k Target 82.4k